The Majors

After the close of the 2009 golf season, there was considerable expectation -- given the venues for three of the four 2010 majors: Augusta National, Pebble Beach and St. Andrews -- that Tiger Woods would add at least one or two major to his list and, therefore, be within striking distance of what once had been considered an unassailable record: Jack Nicklaus's 18 majors.
To most experts, there was a sense of inevitablity, given Tiger's past performance at those three courses and the general perception that no one had ever played the majors as well as Tiger.
But putting aside Thanksgiving Day 2009 and all of the ramifications that have arisen in its wake, you could argue that Tiger's performance at the majors up to that point had not been all that more spectacular than Jack's.
Let's look at their first 55 majors as competitive players -- the number Tiger had played as the 2009 major season ended.
In that period, Tiger recorded 14 victories, five seconds, three thirds, 25 top fives and 31 top tens. The percentages for the top fives and tens are, respectively, 45.5 and 56.4 per cent. In effect, Tiger had been in the top 10 in better than half of all the majors he had played to that point.
In the same number of majors, Jack had 12 victories -- two less -- but he had 10 seconds and six thirds. But even more interesting, his percentages for top fives and tens, 61.8 and 69.1 per cent were strikingly better than Tiger's.
In fact, Jack was in the top 10 of almost 7 our of ever 10 majors he had played.
Remarkable!
But, wait, it gets better.
During his next 22 majors, his record in terms of top fives and tens jumps to 63.6 and 86.4 per cent respectively. That's finishing in the top five for 14 of 22 majors and in the top ten for 19 of 22.
All of this while, arguably, facing tougher competitition than Tiger. Three of his major competitors during his era -- Gary Player, Tom Watson and Arnold Palmer -- are third, fifth and sixth respectively in wins in majors with a total of 24 amongst them. Ben Hogan bumps Arnie out of the top five by virtue of tying with Player for third in all-time wins with nine.
I suppose one could suggest that maybe they were successful because Jack was not quite as skilled a player as Tiger but that doesn't really hold water given the fact that Jack was far more competitive overall in the majors as the above numbers demonstrate.
In contrast, Tiger's top three competitors to date -- Phil Mickelson, Padraig Harrington and Ernie Els have only 10 majors between them and only Phil appears to have any chance of cracking the top ten of winners at majors.
Putting aside the personal distractions that have haunted Tiger since last Thanksgiving, there was already evidence that he might be slowing down.
In the previous 10 majors that he played -- he missed the 2008 British Open and PGA due to injury -- Tiger only won two majors (20 per cent) and in the last six of those events, four have fallen to relative unknowns.
At the very least, it will be interesting to see how Tiger makes out in his next 20 majors having failed to win the first two of this year.
Still, despite all that's happened, I would be surprised, given the lack of dominant competitors, if he doesn't surpass Jack's record for wins in majors.
After all, he will only be turning 40 that year and still could have as many as five more reasonably good years ahead of him, if not more.
Given those circumstances, five more wins shouldn't be that difficult, should it?